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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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