Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
